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Elon Musk just said the AI community is misunderstanding the math of superintelligence by two orders of magnitude.
Not slightly off. Not directionally wrong.
A hundred times off.
Musk: “Most people in the AI community don’t yet understand. The intelligence density potential is vastly greater than what we’re currently experiencing.”
Everyone is focused on the hardware race. Bigger data centers. More GPUs. Nuclear power plants built to feed the compute.
That’s half the equation.
Musk: “I think we’re off by two orders of magnitude in terms of intelligence density per gigabyte. That’s just algorithmic improvement. Same computer.”
Read that carefully. Not more hardware. Not more energy. Not more capital.
The same machine. A hundred times smarter. Through software alone.
That’s before the hardware improvements compound on top of it.
Musk: “And the computers are getting better. That’s why I think it is a 10x improvement per year type thing. 1,000 percent.”
A thousand percent compounding annual growth rate in raw intelligence.
A system that becomes 10x more capable every twelve months doesn’t follow a linear curve. It doesn’t follow an exponential curve that human intuition can track.
It follows a curve that human intuition cannot simulate at all.
In year one it’s 10x smarter. In year two it’s 100x. In year three it’s 1,000x.
At that point, the gap between that system and a human brain is wider than the gap between a human brain and a calculator.
This is the math the public isn’t running.
The models aren’t just getting better. They are compounding on themselves at a rate that makes every previous technology curve look flat.
Musk: “The intelligence density potential is vastly greater than what we’re currently experiencing.”
We aren’t approaching superintelligence on the timeline most people imagine.
We are already inside the curve. |
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