525.The End of An Era!

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Whatever happens Tuesday, it’s fair to say this campaign has not gone as smoothly as Democrats expected.

In the wake of the midterms, Donald J. Trump appeared to be finished. He may still lose, of course, but he clearly wasn’t “disqualified” — as many expected — by Jan. 6, several criminal indictments or an overturning of Roe v. Wade by his Supreme Court appointees. If voters disqualified any candidate in 2024, it was the sitting president, not the felon who attempted to overturn the last election.

How is Mr. Trump still so competitive? The simplest answer is that the national political environment just isn’t as conducive to a Democratic victory as many might imagine.

Democrats clearly face headwinds in this election. In the last New York Times/Siena College poll, only 40 percent of voters approved of President Biden’s performance, and only 28 percent said the country was heading in the right direction. No party has retained control of the White House when so many Americans were dissatisfied with the country or the president.

The polls suggest the challenge for Democrats runs even deeper. For the first time in decades, Republicans have pulled even or ahead in nationwide party identification. Polls also find Republicans with an edge on most key issues — with democracy and abortion standing as significant exceptions.

The Democrats’ challenge appears to be part of a broader trend of political struggles for ruling parties across the developed world. Voters appear eager for change when they get the chance. The ruling parties in Britain, Germany, Italy, Australia and most recently Japan all faced electoral setbacks or lost power. Mr. Trump himself lost four years ago. France and Canada might well join the list.

The specifics vary from country to country and party to party, but much of the story is the same: the pandemic and upheaval that followed. Nearly everywhere, high prices and the fallout from the pandemic left voters angry and resentful. It discredited ruling parties — and many of them weren’t especially popular at the outset.

This gradually eroded and sometimes shattered trust in government officials, liberal elites and the media. When prices rose, it frustrated millions of younger and low-income voters who saw their savings, purchasing power, housing opportunities and hopes dwindle.

In the United States, post-pandemic disillusionment and frustration took a toll on Democrats. The party championed a tough response to the virus, including mask and vaccine mandates, school closures and lockdowns. It had backed the Black Lives Matter movement, argued for a more liberal border policy, sought to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and spent trillions on stimulus. As the pandemic ended, all of this quickly became a liability.

Unlike other governing parties, Democrats have the Trump card to play. Along with abortion, it could be enough to allow Democrats to prevail. That’s exactly what happened in the 2022 midterm elections. But even if Kamala Harris emerges as the winner, it will not necessarily be a victory for progressives.

More than at any time over the last 16 years, Democrats are playing defense on the issues. They’ve moved to the right on immigration, energy and crime. They de-emphasized the traditional liberal push to expand the society safety net, which was eclipsed by the urgency to reduce prices.

Whatever the outcome, a long period of liberal ascendancy in American politics might be waning.

The end of an era?

Since 2008, Democrats and liberalism have been dominant in

Democrats won the popular vote in four straight presidential elections. When they held full control of government, they enacted the Affordable Care Act, Dodd-Frank and the CHIPS Act; they saved the auto industry and spent billions on renewable energy, infrastructure and more.