Trump

Reader86

Does Trump deserve the blame for the midterms?

How badly did the Republicans lose this time? If it were a gamble, it's not just Trump's underwear that's lost—Vance's and Rubio's underwear are gone too, and in all likelihood even Melania's bra is gone.

In America's biggest red state, Texas, the Republicans lost every statewide election, including the governor's seat.

The conservatives who moved from California during the pandemic have started looking at the map for another red state to move to, only to find there are too few red states left.

Even Kansas's Senate seat was taken by the Democrats—the last time this state elected a Democratic senator was 1932, during the Great Depression. A hundred-year red state turned blue overnight.

Why did they lose so badly?

Looking back just two years to the last election, Trump won every swing state, not only winning the Electoral College (312 vs. Harris's 226) but also winning the popular vote (77 million votes, more than two million more than Harris).

Trump says it's because this cycle's Republican candidates just didn't look good enough.

On the surface that seems to have some merit—for example, the Texas Senate race: Democratic pretty boy James Talarico vs. Republican middle-aged greasy guy Ken Paxton; or Georgia's Senate race: the star-studded Democrat Jon Ossoff vs. Republican redneck Mike Collins.

But American voters don't just look at looks. In 2018, the Democrat running for Texas Senate, Beto O'Rourke, was even better looking than Talarico, and he still lost to the middle-aged greasy guy Ted Cruz. This time Ken Paxton has dominated Texas politics for 23 years, going from state legislator to state attorney general and winning three terms. In office he did a lot of real work for conservatives—for example, filing over 100 lawsuits against the Biden administration; suing Facebook and Google for privacy violations and winning up to $2.7 billion in compensation for the people of Texas.

This time the Democrats seem able to win with any candidate at all, including 8 transgender people (I found photos of 5 of them).

Trump of course has to take the blame, and the biggest share of it. Although constitutionally the midterms are a "referendum" on the sitting president, this time the Republicans lost far more than marginal seats—even deep-red strongholds like Texas and Kansas, built up over nearly a century, collapsed entirely. Blaming the candidates' "bad looks" doesn't hold up at all—because the votes voters threw at the Republicans were essentially a rejection of Trump's second-term governing record (especially the economy and the war).

How badly did the Republicans actually lose?

What you described is basically accurate, and even more historic than "losing their underwear":

· Deep-red states turning blue after a century: Kansas Democrat Adam Hamilton won the Senate seat—the first Democratic senator that state has elected in 94 years. Texas was even more thorough: Democrat Talarico took the Senate seat (Texas's first in 38 years), and Hinojosa even seized the governor's mansion (Texas's first Democratic governor in 30-plus years).

· A universal collapse: It wasn't just individual candidates dragging things down. Statistics show that out of about 2,100 counties, Republicans performed worse than in the 2024 election in 99% of counties, with an average drop of about 9 points. This shows the entire base was wavering, not just a few "greasy guys" holding them back.

Why doesn't blaming "candidate looks" hold up?

Ken Paxton (the Texas Republican Senate candidate) you mentioned is indeed a controversial figure, but blaming the defeat on him being "greasy" or scandal-ridden is dodging the real issue:

· Paxton is no incompetent: He really did fight many hard battles for conservatives (suing the Biden administration, suing tech giants). But the problem is that when the national environment (inflation/war) is extremely unfavorable, voters simply stop caring about a candidate's local record. Talarico's smart move was that he campaigned all along on cost of living, jobs, and corruption, hitting voters' wallets directly, rather than getting bogged down in culture wars.
· A "pretty boy" can't fix the economy: Beto O'Rourke was indeed handsome in 2018, but he still lost to Cruz. This shows looks aren't decisive in Texas. The Democrats won this time even though they ran 8 transgender candidates who all won—which precisely proves that voters were punishing the Republicans, not picking "good-looking people."

So where does the real blame lie? Trump's two fatal weaknesses

Trump says "I'm not on the ballot," but in American political logic, the midterms are a vote of confidence in the president. Reuters polling shows Trump's approval rating has fallen to around 32%, near a career low, with only 21% approving of his handling of the cost of living.

1. The Iran war igniting inflation: This was the last straw. Going to war with Iran pushed gas from $3 a gallon to over $4, and the energy price spike quickly fed through to nationwide logistics and daily goods. The White House chief of staff warned before the election that prices would bring "disastrous consequences," but apparently couldn't stop it.

2. Republicans cutting ties internally: A Reuters survey showed that in 62 key races, Republican candidates in 41 of them desperately tried to distance themselves from the White House before the election; in the 23 races with policy disagreements, 12 stemmed directly from the Iran war. Even their own people didn't dare touch him—if Trump doesn't take the blame, who does?

Conclusion: Whether Vance's and Rubio's "underwear" are lost is hard to say, but Trump really did lose the Republican Party's "bottom line" in the red states. This isn't a matter of candidate looks—it's a protest vote by voters against the war, inflation, and Trump himself.

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Plus the second post:

Some people say the main reason was gas prices being too high. But this midterm the national average gas price was $4.1, only about 7% higher than the 2022 midterm price of $3.8. American voters don't want gas prices to rise, but it's hard to believe they'd flip the table over an extra thirty cents. Others say it was the Iran war. War is of course never good, especially a war that can't be won quickly. But this war had no ground combat, almost no American casualties, and Americans have never cared much about international affairs anyway—so it's hard to attribute the Republicans' crushing defeat mainly to the Iran war. I believe the reason for this Republican rout is that voters feel the Trump administration betrayed them. As a diehard Trump fan (still one now), I expected this Republican defeat. Actually, right after the 2024 election ended, I had a bad feeling. The story goes like this: during the 2024 election, Trump's campaign team partnered with Turning Point USA to create an organization called Trump Force 47 (TF47), whose mission was to organize volunteers to knock on doors and get out the vote. At the time, I and a group of volunteers knocked on 5,000 doors and made over 1,000 phone calls. Two of the volunteers came from out of state—one from Florida, one from Chicago—and they came specifically to help North Carolina, a swing state. After Trump won, I received a text message from the Trump Inaugural Committee inviting me to DC to watch the presidential inauguration. But the text message had no specific registration method. I wanted to ask for details, but the number that sent me the message didn't accept replies. I found a contact email through other channels, but my inquiry went unanswered. I tried calling their office, but the line was always busy. When I finally got through, the operator knew nothing and told me to patiently wait for further email notification. The day was approaching, but the further notification never came, and when I called again I couldn't get through at all. With no other choice, I told the volunteers that DC was off and we'd watch the live broadcast at my house instead. My fellow workers understood, and we gathered together to enjoy the fruits of victory. But I was still muttering to myself that the Trump inaugural team was really an amateur operation. On the TV broadcast, Trump was prominently pictured together with Meta's Zuckerberg and Amazon's Bezos. But Zuckerberg had back then not only banned Trump's Facebook & Instagram accounts, but also spent millions in swing states like Georgia setting up unmonitored ballot boxes to make it easier for one party's campaign to cheat. Bezos was Trump's longtime enemy, who once vowed to send Trump into outer space with his Blue Origin rocket. These see-which-way-the-wind-blows tycoons, seeing Trump win, donated millions to the Trump Inaugural Committee and immediately became Trump's honored guests. We grassroots Trump fans felt quite sour seeing that picture. But what really worried me was that Trump might be losing sight of friend and foe. Of course, this little story is just grumbling from us grassroots folks. Specifically for this midterm, Trump made 3 major mistakes. The first mistake was nepotism. Trump likes to use Republican primaries as a stick to beat Republican members who dare to challenge him (like Thomas Massie and Marjorie Greene), or to use his endorsement as a reward for Republicans loyal to him. When South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsay Graham (a RINO and war hawk) died suddenly, it was a good opportunity to elect a real conservative Republican like Ralph Norman, but Trump had a brainstorm and encouraged Graham's sister to run, the reason of course being that his sister Darlene would be totally obedient to Trump. But Graham's sister was a genuine political novice, ten times more novice than even Trump. With Trump's backing, Darlene barely won the Republican primary, but in the midterm she was defeated by a pediatrician named Annie Andrews on the Democratic side. This Annie also had no political experience—and South Carolina voters don't like Democrats; the state hadn't produced a Democratic senator in 28 years. But voters hated nepotism more, and they'd rather elect a Democrat to cast a protest vote. Trump's second mistake was offending MAGA's spokesman Tucker Carlson. Trump's 2024 election victory had three great contributors: Tucker Carlson, Elon Musk (who provided funding), and Charlie Kirk (the conservative movement's spiritual leader). Less than a year after the election, Charlie Kirk was assassinated, a heavy blow to the Republican camp. Because Charlie was able to unite several right-wing forces that didn't quite get along—aka the establishment and MAGA—and their conflict became public after Charlie's death. Last December I went to the first day of Turning Point's America Fest, and right after establishment mouthpiece Ben Shapiro's speech ended, Tucker Carlson immediately opened fire on Shapiro in his own speech across the air. Shapiro is also a hawk; he thinks the Ukraine war is good for America because it can weaken Russia without a single soldier, and he also thinks Iran must be attacked because Iran with nuclear weapons would drop an atomic bomb in the Middle East or on America. Tucker Carlson believes Trump should keep his campaign promise "No more stupid Foreign Wars." This February, on the eve of the Iran war, Tucker Carlson went to the White House to work on Trump for a whole evening, and Trump finally agreed not to attack Iran. But the next day, right after Tucker left, Trump launched the Iran war. Ben Shapiro supported South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in the 2024 presidential primary. After the primary ended, he held his nose and reluctantly supported Trump, and later discovered Trump was willing to back Israel in the Middle East, which delighted him (Shapiro is Jewish), and on his podcast he declared Trump one of America's greatest presidents. But tragically, after this Republican midterm defeat, Shapiro was the first to jump out and cut ties with Trump, saying Trump wasn't wrong to attack Iran, but failed to win quickly. Trump's third mistake was offending both blue-collar and white-collar workers at the same time. The Iran war pushing up gas prices of course hurt Trump's electoral prospects, but what really broke MAGA's heart was Trump's betrayal of his own campaign promises. MAGA believes Trump ignores their core demands and has turned MAGA into MIGA (Make Israel Great Again, or Make Iran Great Again). High gas prices caused blue-collar dissatisfaction with the Trump administration, because their incomes are low and their daily commutes are long, so gas prices hit their cost of living visibly. The Data Center controversy, meanwhile, pushed white-collar workers to the opposite side of Trump. Democrats believe Data Centers will drive up water and electricity bills in the communities where they're located, so they oppose them unswervingly. Obama, with his bloodhound-like political instincts, spotted that the Data Center controversy was a golden opportunity and must be made a big deal of. This time Texas's newly elected governor Gina Hinojosa rode Data Center anxiety to office. Trump thought utility bills were the key issue, and he demanded that Hyper Scalers build their own power plants when building Data Centers, so they wouldn't drive up local electricity bills. So when a reporter asked him about community opposition to Data Centers, he thought Data Centers would benefit the locals (make them RICH), and that opposing Data Centers was an unwise decision. What he failed to understand was that utility bills were actually just the tip of the iceberg of the Data Center controversy; the voters' real anxiety came from the wave of white-collar unemployment brought by AI. A-something's CEO Dario Amodei warned that within 5 years AI could replace 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs, pushing America's unemployment rate to 10%-20% (currently America's unemployment rate is only about 4%). But Trump seems mesmerized by a few tech tycoons, believing only AI can make America great again, and he turns a deaf ear to the unemployment problems AI may bring, let alone having any response plan. This is exactly like Trump 1.0's COVID pandemic: at the very beginning of the pandemic, Trump thought COVID was just a big flu, but the Democrats seized the opportunity, using the pandemic and mail-in ballots to send an elderly man with dementia into the White House. This time AI's impact on the job market may be another big flu, or it may be the tsunami the Democrats think it is. (Most likely neither is right; it should be somewhere in between.) No matter who's right, Trump's attitude of ignoring white-collar anxiety about AI is a big mistake. To use an analogy: if your girlfriend is being bullied by the old Wang next door, and you, like Trump, choose to ignore the problem and say old Wang is an upright gentleman who wouldn't do such a thing, and besides, old Wang is my boss—your girlfriend would be crazy not to break up with you. If you reacted like Sanders (Bernie Sanders)—"let me go break one of old Wang's legs"—your girlfriend would be devoted to you for sure. Previously Bernie clearly stated that to protect American jobs, Data Center construction should be paused and AI model development should be slowed down. Voters voting for Democrats isn't because Democratic policies are so good. After all, the Democrats have been the opposition party for the past two years and couldn't have accomplished anything. Voters abandoned the Republicans because the Trump administration ignored voters' core demands. Take a simple example: the SAVE ACT (only citizens can vote in elections) is strongly demanded by Republican voters, and many moderate voters and even Democratic voters support it too (this time North Carolina's referendum requiring ID for voting passed by a landslide, proving this), yet the Republican-controlled Senate has refused for two years to bring the Save Act to a vote. Personally, I feel that over the past 20 years America has been like a sinking Titanic, and the Republicans who refuse to make any changes are like the rich dining in the first-class cabin, wearing tuxedos and holding champagne, insisting the band keep playing even as the seawater has already covered their feet. The Democrats' approach is to smash a big hole in the bottom of the ship, as if that could drain the water off the deck, but the icy seawater rushing in from the ocean will only accelerate the Titanic's sinking. This midterm the Democrats won by a big margin, but if they spend most of their energy on impeachment, DEI, and so on like they used to, America's ship will sink even faster. If Trump can learn his lesson and correct his mistakes, the Republicans are not without a chance in the 2028 election!

Reader86

Some people say it was mainly because gas prices were too high. But during this mid-term election, the national average gas price was $4.10, which is only 7% higher than the 2022 mid-term price ($3.80). American voters certainly don't like rising gas prices, but they wouldn’t flip the table over an extra thirty cents.
Others blame the Iran war. War is never a good thing, especially one that can't be won quickly. But this war involved no ground troops and resulted in almost zero casualties among American soldiers. Combined with the fact that Americans traditionally don't care much about international affairs, it’s hard to attribute the Republicans' devastating defeat primarily to the war in Iran.
In my view, the real reason the Republicans suffered such a heavy defeat is that voters felt betrayed by the Trump administration. As a hardcore Trump supporter (and I still am today), this Republican defeat was completely within my expectations. In fact, right after the 2024 election ended, I already had an ominous feeling.
Here’s how the story goes: During the 2024 election, Trump’s campaign team partnered with Turning Point USA to create an organization called Trump Force 47 (TF47), whose mission was to organize volunteers to go door-to-door canvassing for votes. At the time, a group of volunteers and I knocked on 5,000 doors and made over 1,000 phone calls. Two of those volunteers even traveled from out of state—one from Florida and one from Chicago—just to help out in North Carolina, a critical swing state.
After Trump won, I received a text message from the Presidential Inaugural Committee inviting me to DC to watch the inauguration. However, the text contained no specific registration details. I tried to reply with questions, but the number didn't accept incoming messages. I managed to find a contact email through other channels, but sending an inquiry was like dropping a stone into the ocean—no response. I tried calling their office, but the line was constantly busy. When I finally got through, the receptionist knew nothing and simply told me to wait patiently for a follow-up email notification. As the day approached, that follow-up notice never came, and calling back proved impossible. Out of options, I had to tell our volunteers that we couldn't go to DC after all, and we invited them over to our house to watch the live broadcast instead. Everyone was understanding, and we gathered to enjoy the fruits of victory together. Still, in the back of my mind, I couldn't help thinking that Trump’s inauguration team was running a total makeshift amateur operation.
During the live broadcast, there were Trump, Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos clearly framed together on screen. Yet back in the day, Zuckerberg had not only banned Trump’s Facebook and Instagram accounts, but he had also spent millions of dollars in swing states like Georgia to set up unmonitored drop boxes to facilitate election cheating for a certain party. Bezos was Trump’s sworn enemy, who once vowed to use his Blue Origin rocket to blast Trump into outer space. Seeing that Trump had won, these fair-weather oligarchs donated millions to the inaugural committee and instantly became his guests of honor.
Seeing that scene on screen made us grassroots Trump supporters feel deeply bitter inside. But what truly worried me was that Trump might be losing the ability to tell friend from foe.